# R Sagina apetala Ard. - Senecio sylvaticus L.

## R.1Sagina apetala Ard.

Table R.1: Summary table of data for Sagina apetala Ard.. Figure R.1: Effect of year on the probability of Sagina apetala Ard. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.2: The same as R.1, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.3: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Sagina apetala Ard. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.2Sagina procumbens L.

Table R.2: Summary table of data for Sagina procumbens L.. Figure R.4: Effect of year on the probability of Sagina procumbens L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.5: The same as R.4, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.6: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Sagina procumbens L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.3Sagittaria sagittifolia L.

Table R.3: Summary table of data for Sagittaria sagittifolia L.. Figure R.7: Effect of year on the probability of Sagittaria sagittifolia L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.8: The same as R.7, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.9: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Sagittaria sagittifolia L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.4Salix alba L.

Table R.4: Summary table of data for Salix alba L.. Figure R.10: Effect of year on the probability of Salix alba L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.11: The same as R.10, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.12: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Salix alba L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.5Salix aurita L.

Table R.5: Summary table of data for Salix aurita L.. Figure R.13: Effect of year on the probability of Salix aurita L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.14: The same as R.13, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.15: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Salix aurita L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.6Salix caprea L.

Table R.6: Summary table of data for Salix caprea L.. Figure R.16: Effect of year on the probability of Salix caprea L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.17: The same as R.16, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.18: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Salix caprea L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.7Salix fragilis L. (incl. kruisingen)

Table R.7: Summary table of data for Salix fragilis L. (incl. kruisingen). Figure R.19: Effect of year on the probability of Salix fragilis L. (incl. kruisingen) presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.20: The same as R.19, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.21: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Salix fragilis L. (incl. kruisingen) presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.8Salix repens L.

Table R.8: Summary table of data for Salix repens L.. Figure R.22: Effect of year on the probability of Salix repens L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.23: The same as R.22, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.24: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Salix repens L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.9Salix triandra L.

Table R.9: Summary table of data for Salix triandra L.. Figure R.25: Effect of year on the probability of Salix triandra L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.26: The same as R.25, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.27: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Salix triandra L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.10Salix viminalis L.

Table R.10: Summary table of data for Salix viminalis L.. Figure R.28: Effect of year on the probability of Salix viminalis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.29: The same as R.28, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.30: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Salix viminalis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.11Sambucus nigra L.

Table R.11: Summary table of data for Sambucus nigra L.. Figure R.31: Effect of year on the probability of Sambucus nigra L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.32: The same as R.31, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.33: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Sambucus nigra L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.12Saponaria officinalis L.

Table R.12: Summary table of data for Saponaria officinalis L.. Figure R.34: Effect of year on the probability of Saponaria officinalis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.35: The same as R.34, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.36: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Saponaria officinalis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.13Saxifraga granulata L.

Table R.13: Summary table of data for Saxifraga granulata L.. Figure R.37: Effect of year on the probability of Saxifraga granulata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.38: The same as R.37, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.39: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Saxifraga granulata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.14Saxifraga tridactylites L.

Table R.14: Summary table of data for Saxifraga tridactylites L.. Figure R.40: Effect of year on the probability of Saxifraga tridactylites L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.41: The same as R.40, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.42: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Saxifraga tridactylites L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.15Hyacinthoides hispanica (Mill.) Rothm.

Table R.15: Summary table of data for Hyacinthoides hispanica (Mill.) Rothm.. Figure R.43: Effect of year on the probability of Hyacinthoides hispanica (Mill.) Rothm. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.44: The same as R.43, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.45: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Hyacinthoides hispanica (Mill.) Rothm. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.16Hyacinthoides non-scripta (L.) Chouard ex Rothm.

Table R.16: Summary table of data for Hyacinthoides non-scripta (L.) Chouard ex Rothm.. Figure R.46: Effect of year on the probability of Hyacinthoides non-scripta (L.) Chouard ex Rothm. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.47: The same as R.46, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.48: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Hyacinthoides non-scripta (L.) Chouard ex Rothm. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.17Scirpus maritimus L.

Table R.17: Summary table of data for Scirpus maritimus L.. Figure R.49: Effect of year on the probability of Scirpus maritimus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.50: The same as R.49, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.51: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Scirpus maritimus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.18Scirpus setaceus L.

Table R.18: Summary table of data for Scirpus setaceus L.. Figure R.52: Effect of year on the probability of Scirpus setaceus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.53: The same as R.52, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.54: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Scirpus setaceus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.19Scirpus sylvaticus L.

Table R.19: Summary table of data for Scirpus sylvaticus L.. Figure R.55: Effect of year on the probability of Scirpus sylvaticus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.56: The same as R.55, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.57: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Scirpus sylvaticus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.20Scleranthus annuus L.

Table R.20: Summary table of data for Scleranthus annuus L.. Figure R.58: Effect of year on the probability of Scleranthus annuus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.59: The same as R.58, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.60: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Scleranthus annuus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.21Scrophularia auriculata L.

Table R.21: Summary table of data for Scrophularia auriculata L.. Figure R.61: Effect of year on the probability of Scrophularia auriculata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.62: The same as R.61, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.63: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Scrophularia auriculata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.22Scrophularia nodosa L.

Table R.22: Summary table of data for Scrophularia nodosa L.. Figure R.64: Effect of year on the probability of Scrophularia nodosa L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.65: The same as R.64, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.66: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Scrophularia nodosa L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.23Scrophularia umbrosa Dum.

Table R.23: Summary table of data for Scrophularia umbrosa Dum.. Figure R.67: Effect of year on the probability of Scrophularia umbrosa Dum. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.68: The same as R.67, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.69: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Scrophularia umbrosa Dum. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.24Scutellaria galericulata L.

Table R.24: Summary table of data for Scutellaria galericulata L.. Figure R.70: Effect of year on the probability of Scutellaria galericulata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.71: The same as R.70, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.72: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Scutellaria galericulata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.25Sedum acre L.

Table R.25: Summary table of data for Sedum acre L.. Figure R.73: Effect of year on the probability of Sedum acre L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.74: The same as R.73, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.75: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Sedum acre L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.26Sedum album L.

Table R.26: Summary table of data for Sedum album L.. Figure R.76: Effect of year on the probability of Sedum album L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.77: The same as R.76, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.78: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Sedum album L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.27Sedum telephium L.

Table R.27: Summary table of data for Sedum telephium L.. Figure R.79: Effect of year on the probability of Sedum telephium L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.80: The same as R.79, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.81: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Sedum telephium L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.28Senecio erucifolius L.

Table R.28: Summary table of data for Senecio erucifolius L.. Figure R.82: Effect of year on the probability of Senecio erucifolius L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.83: The same as R.82, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.84: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Senecio erucifolius L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.29Senecio inaequidens DC.

Table R.29: Summary table of data for Senecio inaequidens DC.. Figure R.85: Effect of year on the probability of Senecio inaequidens DC. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.86: The same as R.85, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.87: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Senecio inaequidens DC. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.30Senecio jacobaea L.

Table R.30: Summary table of data for Senecio jacobaea L.. Figure R.88: Effect of year on the probability of Senecio jacobaea L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.89: The same as R.88, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.90: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Senecio jacobaea L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.31Senecio ovatus (P. Gaertn., B. Mey. et Scherb.) Willd.

Table R.31: Summary table of data for Senecio ovatus (P. Gaertn., B. Mey. et Scherb.) Willd.. Figure R.91: Effect of year on the probability of Senecio ovatus (P. Gaertn., B. Mey. et Scherb.) Willd. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.92: The same as R.91, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.93: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Senecio ovatus (P. Gaertn., B. Mey. et Scherb.) Willd. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## R.32Senecio sylvaticus L.

Table R.32: Summary table of data for Senecio sylvaticus L.. Figure R.94: Effect of year on the probability of Senecio sylvaticus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.95: The same as R.94, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure R.96: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Senecio sylvaticus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.