E Capsella bursa-pastoris (L.) Med. - Carpinus betulus L.

E.1 Capsella bursa-pastoris (L.) Med.

Table E.1: Summary table of data for Capsella bursa-pastoris (L.) Med..

Figure E.1: Effect of year on the probability of Capsella bursa-pastoris (L.) Med. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.2: The same as E.1, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.3: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Capsella bursa-pastoris (L.) Med. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.2 Cardaria draba (L.) Desv.

Table E.2: Summary table of data for Cardaria draba (L.) Desv..

Figure E.4: Effect of year on the probability of Cardaria draba (L.) Desv. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.5: The same as E.4, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.6: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Cardaria draba (L.) Desv. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.3 Cardamine amara L.

Table E.3: Summary table of data for Cardamine amara L..

Figure E.7: Effect of year on the probability of Cardamine amara L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.8: The same as E.7, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.9: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Cardamine amara L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.4 Cardamine flexuosa With.

Table E.4: Summary table of data for Cardamine flexuosa With..

Figure E.10: Effect of year on the probability of Cardamine flexuosa With. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.11: The same as E.10, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.12: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Cardamine flexuosa With. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.5 Cardamine hirsuta L.

Table E.5: Summary table of data for Cardamine hirsuta L..

Figure E.13: Effect of year on the probability of Cardamine hirsuta L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.14: The same as E.13, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.15: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Cardamine hirsuta L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.6 Cardamine pratensis L.

Table E.6: Summary table of data for Cardamine pratensis L..

Figure E.16: Effect of year on the probability of Cardamine pratensis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.17: The same as E.16, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.18: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Cardamine pratensis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.7 Carduus crispus L.

Table E.7: Summary table of data for Carduus crispus L..

Figure E.19: Effect of year on the probability of Carduus crispus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.20: The same as E.19, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.21: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carduus crispus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.8 Carex acutiformis Ehrh.

Table E.8: Summary table of data for Carex acutiformis Ehrh..

Figure E.22: Effect of year on the probability of Carex acutiformis Ehrh. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.23: The same as E.22, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.24: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex acutiformis Ehrh. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.9 Carex acuta L.

(ref:distinct-squares-Careacut.1) Summary table of data for Carex acuta L..

(#tab:distinct-squares-Careacut.1)(ref:distinct-squares-Careacut.1)

(ref:p-year-Careacut.1) Effect of year on the probability of Carex acuta L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

(#fig:p-year-Careacut.1)(ref:p-year-Careacut.1)

(ref:p-year-freey-Careacut.1) The same as @ref(fig:p-year-Careacut.1), but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

(#fig:p-year-freey-Careacut.1)(ref:p-year-freey-Careacut.1)

(ref:p-space-Careacut.1) Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex acuta L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

(#fig:p-space-Careacut.1)(ref:p-space-Careacut.1)

E.10 Carex arenaria L.

Table E.9: Summary table of data for Carex arenaria L..

Figure E.25: Effect of year on the probability of Carex arenaria L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.26: The same as E.25, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.27: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex arenaria L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.11 Carex cuprina (Sándor ex Heuffel) Nendtvich ex A. Kerner

Table E.10: Summary table of data for Carex cuprina (Sándor ex Heuffel) Nendtvich ex A. Kerner.

Figure E.28: Effect of year on the probability of Carex cuprina (Sándor ex Heuffel) Nendtvich ex A. Kerner presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.29: The same as E.28, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.30: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex cuprina (Sándor ex Heuffel) Nendtvich ex A. Kerner presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.12 Carex canescens L.

Table E.11: Summary table of data for Carex canescens L..

Figure E.31: Effect of year on the probability of Carex canescens L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.32: The same as E.31, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.33: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex canescens L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.13 Carex disticha Huds.

Table E.12: Summary table of data for Carex disticha Huds..

Figure E.34: Effect of year on the probability of Carex disticha Huds. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.35: The same as E.34, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.36: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex disticha Huds. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.14 Carex elata All.

Table E.13: Summary table of data for Carex elata All..

Figure E.37: Effect of year on the probability of Carex elata All. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.38: The same as E.37, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.39: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex elata All. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.15 Carex elongata L.

Table E.14: Summary table of data for Carex elongata L..

Figure E.40: Effect of year on the probability of Carex elongata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.41: The same as E.40, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.42: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex elongata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.16 Carex flacca Schreb.

Table E.15: Summary table of data for Carex flacca Schreb..

Figure E.43: Effect of year on the probability of Carex flacca Schreb. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.44: The same as E.43, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

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E.17 Carex hirta L.

Table E.16: Summary table of data for Carex hirta L..

Figure E.45: Effect of year on the probability of Carex hirta L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.46: The same as E.45, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.47: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex hirta L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.18 Carex nigra (L.) Reichard

Table E.17: Summary table of data for Carex nigra (L.) Reichard.

Figure E.48: Effect of year on the probability of Carex nigra (L.) Reichard presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.49: The same as E.48, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.50: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex nigra (L.) Reichard presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.19 Carex demissa Vahl ex Hartm.

Table E.18: Summary table of data for Carex demissa Vahl ex Hartm..

Figure E.51: Effect of year on the probability of Carex demissa Vahl ex Hartm. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.52: The same as E.51, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.53: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex demissa Vahl ex Hartm. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.20 Carex ovalis Good.

Table E.19: Summary table of data for Carex ovalis Good..

Figure E.54: Effect of year on the probability of Carex ovalis Good. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.55: The same as E.54, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.56: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex ovalis Good. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.21 Carex paniculata L.

Table E.20: Summary table of data for Carex paniculata L..

Figure E.57: Effect of year on the probability of Carex paniculata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.58: The same as E.57, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.59: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex paniculata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.22 Carex panicea L.

(ref:distinct-squares-Carepani.1) Summary table of data for Carex panicea L..

(#tab:distinct-squares-Carepani.1)(ref:distinct-squares-Carepani.1)

(ref:p-year-Carepani.1) Effect of year on the probability of Carex panicea L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

(#fig:p-year-Carepani.1)(ref:p-year-Carepani.1)

(ref:p-year-freey-Carepani.1) The same as @ref(fig:p-year-Carepani.1), but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

(#fig:p-year-freey-Carepani.1)(ref:p-year-freey-Carepani.1)

(ref:p-space-Carepani.1) Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex panicea L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

(#fig:p-space-Carepani.1)(ref:p-space-Carepani.1)

E.23 Carex pendula Huds.

Table E.21: Summary table of data for Carex pendula Huds..

Figure E.60: Effect of year on the probability of Carex pendula Huds. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.61: The same as E.60, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.62: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex pendula Huds. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.24 Carex pilulifera L.

Table E.22: Summary table of data for Carex pilulifera L..

Figure E.63: Effect of year on the probability of Carex pilulifera L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.64: The same as E.63, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.65: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex pilulifera L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.25 Carex pseudocyperus L.

Table E.23: Summary table of data for Carex pseudocyperus L..

Figure E.66: Effect of year on the probability of Carex pseudocyperus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.67: The same as E.66, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.68: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex pseudocyperus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.26 Carex remota Jusl. ex L.

Table E.24: Summary table of data for Carex remota Jusl. ex L..

Figure E.69: Effect of year on the probability of Carex remota Jusl. ex L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.70: The same as E.69, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.71: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex remota Jusl. ex L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.27 Carex riparia Curt.

Table E.25: Summary table of data for Carex riparia Curt..

Figure E.72: Effect of year on the probability of Carex riparia Curt. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.73: The same as E.72, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.74: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex riparia Curt. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.28 Carex rostrata Stokes

Table E.26: Summary table of data for Carex rostrata Stokes.

Figure E.75: Effect of year on the probability of Carex rostrata Stokes presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.76: The same as E.75, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.77: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex rostrata Stokes presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.29 Carex spicata Huds.

Table E.27: Summary table of data for Carex spicata Huds..

Figure E.78: Effect of year on the probability of Carex spicata Huds. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.79: The same as E.78, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

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E.30 Carex sylvatica Huds.

Table E.28: Summary table of data for Carex sylvatica Huds..

Figure E.80: Effect of year on the probability of Carex sylvatica Huds. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.81: The same as E.80, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.82: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex sylvatica Huds. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.31 Carex vesicaria L.

Table E.29: Summary table of data for Carex vesicaria L..

Figure E.83: Effect of year on the probability of Carex vesicaria L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.84: The same as E.83, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.85: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carex vesicaria L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

E.32 Carpinus betulus L.

Table E.30: Summary table of data for Carpinus betulus L..

Figure E.86: Effect of year on the probability of Carpinus betulus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.87: The same as E.86, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

Figure E.88: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Carpinus betulus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.