# M Malva moschata L. - Nardus stricta L.

## M.1Malva moschata L.

Table M.1: Summary table of data for Malva moschata L.. Figure M.1: Effect of year on the probability of Malva moschata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.2: The same as M.1, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.3: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Malva moschata L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.2Malva neglecta Wallr.

Table M.2: Summary table of data for Malva neglecta Wallr.. Figure M.4: Effect of year on the probability of Malva neglecta Wallr. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.5: The same as M.4, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.6: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Malva neglecta Wallr. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.3Malva sylvestris L.

Table M.3: Summary table of data for Malva sylvestris L.. Figure M.7: Effect of year on the probability of Malva sylvestris L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.8: The same as M.7, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.9: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Malva sylvestris L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.4Matricaria discoidea DC.

Table M.4: Summary table of data for Matricaria discoidea DC.. Figure M.10: Effect of year on the probability of Matricaria discoidea DC. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.11: The same as M.10, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.12: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Matricaria discoidea DC. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.5Matricaria maritima L.

Table M.5: Summary table of data for Matricaria maritima L.. Figure M.13: Effect of year on the probability of Matricaria maritima L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.14: The same as M.13, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.15: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Matricaria maritima L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.6Matricaria recutita L.

Table M.6: Summary table of data for Matricaria recutita L.. Figure M.16: Effect of year on the probability of Matricaria recutita L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.17: The same as M.16, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.18: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Matricaria recutita L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.7Medicago arabica (L.) Huds.

Table M.7: Summary table of data for Medicago arabica (L.) Huds.. Figure M.19: Effect of year on the probability of Medicago arabica (L.) Huds. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.20: The same as M.19, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.21: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Medicago arabica (L.) Huds. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.8Medicago lupulina L.

Table M.8: Summary table of data for Medicago lupulina L.. Figure M.22: Effect of year on the probability of Medicago lupulina L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.23: The same as M.22, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.24: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Medicago lupulina L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.9Medicago sativa L.

Table M.9: Summary table of data for Medicago sativa L.. Figure M.25: Effect of year on the probability of Medicago sativa L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.26: The same as M.25, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.27: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Medicago sativa L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.10Melampyrum pratense L.

Table M.10: Summary table of data for Melampyrum pratense L.. Figure M.28: Effect of year on the probability of Melampyrum pratense L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.29: The same as M.28, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.30: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Melampyrum pratense L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.11Melilotus albus Med.

Table M.11: Summary table of data for Melilotus albus Med.. Figure M.31: Effect of year on the probability of Melilotus albus Med. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.32: The same as M.31, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.33: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Melilotus albus Med. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.12Melilotus altissimus Thuill.

Table M.12: Summary table of data for Melilotus altissimus Thuill.. Figure M.34: Effect of year on the probability of Melilotus altissimus Thuill. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.35: The same as M.34, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.36: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Melilotus altissimus Thuill. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.13Melilotus officinalis Lam.

Table M.13: Summary table of data for Melilotus officinalis Lam.. Figure M.37: Effect of year on the probability of Melilotus officinalis Lam. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.38: The same as M.37, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.39: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Melilotus officinalis Lam. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.14Melissa officinalis L.

(ref:distinct-squares-Melioffi.1) Summary table of data for Melissa officinalis L..

(#tab:distinct-squares-Melioffi.1)(ref:distinct-squares-Melioffi.1)

(ref:p-year-Melioffi.1) Effect of year on the probability of Melissa officinalis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. (#fig:p-year-Melioffi.1)(ref:p-year-Melioffi.1)

(ref:p-year-freey-Melioffi.1) The same as @ref(fig:p-year-Melioffi.1), but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. (#fig:p-year-freey-Melioffi.1)(ref:p-year-freey-Melioffi.1)

(ref:p-space-Melioffi.1) Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Melissa officinalis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. (#fig:p-space-Melioffi.1)(ref:p-space-Melioffi.1)

## M.15Mentha aquatica L.

Table M.14: Summary table of data for Mentha aquatica L.. Figure M.40: Effect of year on the probability of Mentha aquatica L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.41: The same as M.40, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.42: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Mentha aquatica L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.16Mentha arvensis L.

Table M.15: Summary table of data for Mentha arvensis L.. Figure M.43: Effect of year on the probability of Mentha arvensis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.44: The same as M.43, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.45: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Mentha arvensis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.17Mentha suaveolens Ehrh. (+ hybriden)

Table M.16: Summary table of data for Mentha suaveolens Ehrh. (+ hybriden). Figure M.46: Effect of year on the probability of Mentha suaveolens Ehrh. (+ hybriden) presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.47: The same as M.46, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.48: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Mentha suaveolens Ehrh. (+ hybriden) presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.18Mercurialis annua L.

Table M.17: Summary table of data for Mercurialis annua L.. Figure M.49: Effect of year on the probability of Mercurialis annua L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.50: The same as M.49, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.51: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Mercurialis annua L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.19Mercurialis perennis L.

Table M.18: Summary table of data for Mercurialis perennis L.. Figure M.52: Effect of year on the probability of Mercurialis perennis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.53: The same as M.52, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.54: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Mercurialis perennis L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.20Milium effusum L.

Table M.19: Summary table of data for Milium effusum L.. Figure M.55: Effect of year on the probability of Milium effusum L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.56: The same as M.55, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.57: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Milium effusum L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.21Moehringia trinervia (L.) Clairv.

Table M.20: Summary table of data for Moehringia trinervia (L.) Clairv.. Figure M.58: Effect of year on the probability of Moehringia trinervia (L.) Clairv. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.59: The same as M.58, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.60: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Moehringia trinervia (L.) Clairv. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.22Molinia caerulea (L.) Moench

Table M.21: Summary table of data for Molinia caerulea (L.) Moench. Figure M.61: Effect of year on the probability of Molinia caerulea (L.) Moench presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.62: The same as M.61, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.63: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Molinia caerulea (L.) Moench presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.23Montia minor C.C. Gmel.

Table M.22: Summary table of data for Montia minor C.C. Gmel.. Figure M.64: Effect of year on the probability of Montia minor C.C. Gmel. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.65: The same as M.64, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.66: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Montia minor C.C. Gmel. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.24Mycelis muralis (L.) Dum.

Table M.23: Summary table of data for Mycelis muralis (L.) Dum.. Figure M.67: Effect of year on the probability of Mycelis muralis (L.) Dum. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.68: The same as M.67, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.69: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Mycelis muralis (L.) Dum. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.25Myosotis arvensis (L.) Hill

Table M.24: Summary table of data for Myosotis arvensis (L.) Hill. Figure M.70: Effect of year on the probability of Myosotis arvensis (L.) Hill presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.71: The same as M.70, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.72: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Myosotis arvensis (L.) Hill presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.26Myosotis discolor Pers.

Table M.25: Summary table of data for Myosotis discolor Pers.. Figure M.73: Effect of year on the probability of Myosotis discolor Pers. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.74: The same as M.73, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.75: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Myosotis discolor Pers. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.27Myosotis scorpioides L.

Table M.26: Summary table of data for Myosotis scorpioides L.. Figure M.76: Effect of year on the probability of Myosotis scorpioides L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.77: The same as M.76, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.78: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Myosotis scorpioides L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.28Myosotis sylvatica Ehrh. ex Hoffmann

Table M.27: Summary table of data for Myosotis sylvatica Ehrh. ex Hoffmann. Figure M.79: Effect of year on the probability of Myosotis sylvatica Ehrh. ex Hoffmann presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.80: The same as M.79, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.81: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Myosotis sylvatica Ehrh. ex Hoffmann presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.29Myrica gale L.

Table M.28: Summary table of data for Myrica gale L.. Figure M.82: Effect of year on the probability of Myrica gale L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.83: The same as M.82, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.84: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Myrica gale L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.30Myriophyllum spicatum L.

Table M.29: Summary table of data for Myriophyllum spicatum L.. Figure M.85: Effect of year on the probability of Myriophyllum spicatum L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.86: The same as M.85, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.87: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Myriophyllum spicatum L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.31Narcissus pseudonarcissus L.

Table M.30: Summary table of data for Narcissus pseudonarcissus L.. Figure M.88: Effect of year on the probability of Narcissus pseudonarcissus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.89: The same as M.88, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.90: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Narcissus pseudonarcissus L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.

## M.32Nardus stricta L.

Table M.31: Summary table of data for Nardus stricta L.. Figure M.91: Effect of year on the probability of Nardus stricta L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The fitted line shows the sum of the overall mean (the intercept), a conditional effect of list-length equal to 130 and the year-smoother. The vertical dashed lines indicate the year(s) where the year-smoother is zero. The 95% confidence band is shown in grey (including the variability around the intercept and the smoother). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.92: The same as M.91, but the vertical axis is scaled to the range of the predicted values such that relative changes can be seen more easily. a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018. Figure M.93: Visualisation of the spatial smooth effect on the probability of Nardus stricta L. presence in 1 km x 1 km squares where the species has been observed at least once. The probabilities (values on the contour lines) are conditional on the final year of observation and a list-length equal to 130. The dashed contour line demarcates zones where the species is expected to be more prevalent (red shades) from zones where the species is less prevalent (blue shades). a: 1950 - 2018, b: 1990 - 2018.